Scottie Scheffler is 2/9 to convert a three-shot lead in the PGA Championship, and Ben Coley can't see past him. Read our final-round preview.
Golf betting tips: PGA Championship round four
2pts Smylie, Schauffele and Olesen to win their two-balls at 24/5 (William Hill)
2pts Bradley and Poston to win their two-balls at 11/5 (bet365, 888sport)
1pt five-fold Smylie, Schauffele, Olesen, Bradley, Poston at 16/1 (General)
The PGA Championship came to life for about an hour on Saturday, and then world number one Scottie Scheffler turned it from something competitive into something seemingly processional. Eagle, birdie, par, birdie, birdie, the Green Mile tagged onto the end of the scoring stretch. Three shots ahead and 2/9 to win his third major championship.
There is risk in anointing anyone with 18 holes still to play and three shots is not a particularly wide margin in this sport. But it's surely more than enough. Scheffler is 5/1 to win by five or more. When you consider that only Alex Noren, JT Poston and Davis Riley are closer to him than that, but for the fact that he has a job to do, and that the job involves avoiding big mistakes, the price would seem generous.
The without Scheffler market is highly competitive and if Noren stalls from the final group, which seems likely given that he's played seven competitive rounds all year, then there are any number of winners. Jon Rahm is the right favourite but it'll probably help both of the penultimate group to know that they're not realistic winners unless Scheffler falls, and Poston would get my vote at 13/2.
With my outright selections set to fall well short, it's all on Jhonattan Vegas who will make or break the week. After three-putting the 18th hole he's tied for the lead in the top rest of the world market with new favourite Si Woo Kim, but there's just a two-shot gap back to Adam Scott and Garrick Higgo, with five more players within five. Vegas will need to shoot something around 72, maybe 73, to land the place money.
Had he played the final four holes in level par rather than two-over we might be in a position to back Kim and Scott as cover shots, but the former is now just 13/8 and I'm not sure Scott is much of a price at 6/1 given the situation.
Hopefully, Vegas is freed up having now lost the lead and a realistic chance to win, but I worry that the tank could empty. He's spent virtually the whole tournament at the top of the leaderboard, draining for anyone but perhaps more so a 40-year-old with no experience in this kind of situation.
Before we get to the final groups, ELVIS SMYLIE can beat Brian Campbell.
Smylie made the cut on the number with a gutsy five-footer on Friday but that effort was wasted somewhat by playing the first seven holes in six-over yesterday. After that thought he fought hard to play the final 11 holes in level-par and he can progress up the leaderboard today.
Campbell is significantly handicapped by his lack of power around here and it's no surprise that he's last of 74 players in strokes-gained ball-striking. His short-game helped him to avoid shooting 80-something in round three and while he too battled well after a nightmare start, whether he can keep bailing himself out I'm not so sure.
Tom Kim and Sam Stevens are the next-worst ball-strikers so far but neither is in with a partner I want to be ing. Michael Kim struggled yesterday and his fitness is still a worry, and while Richard Bland's approach work and strong form on LIV make him seem a touch overpriced at 11/8, this will have been a slog for the 52-year-old.
Instead, I'll take XANDER SCHAUFFELE to finish his title defence strongly and beat Sam Burns, whose long-game remains a big problem, and THORBJORN OLESEN to beat Luke Donald.
Schauffele still hasn't put everything together since returning from injury but yesterday's 73 was more like it, his putter started to warm up, and as a player with a far superior Quail Hollow record he is a strong fancy.
Donald has kept on defying expectations this week but Olesen matched his score despite putting horrendously in round three. He has the added incentive of putting on a show for his potential Ryder Cup captain and a low round here could go a long way.
At almost 5/1 the treble, this trio provide value and interest before the contenders take to the course later on, among whom KEEGAN BRADLEY looks the pick.
He's playing with Vegas and those concerns about the latter's ability to go again following a disappointing third round are genuine.
Bradley continues to operate at a very high level, good enough to become a player rather than captain at the Ryder Cup, and plenty of Europeans will be keen to see him end the week strongly and gather more points.
The way he's struck the ball so far makes that seem entirely possible. He's second in strokes-gained tee-to-green and a decent day with the putter should be enough against a player who struggles in that department too.
Poston is preferred to Riley for the double, the latter clearly back in form and a player I've followed since March, but prone to a big number. Poston, with plenty of behind him, can underline how far he's come with his first major top 10.
A final note on Scheffler. It's highly likely he's the one heading to the 18th hole to finish off a convincing win and that has to be considered, but Sky Bet's 5/2 on a bogey or worse by the winner at the 72nd hole is interesting.
Not only is the 18th a very tough hole, averaging 4.40 and ranking first in difficulty, but it's also one with a creek to the left that makes the bail-out right so natural if all you have to do is avoid disaster, in turn making five the likely score.
Perhaps Scheffler will be so far clear that he can simply step up and thrash one down the middle, but I'd be betting more like 7/4 the winner makes bogey or worse.
Posted at 0915 BST on 18/05/25
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