Following a change to tee-times, Ben Coley updates his round three preview with a three-ball double at 9/2.
Please note, due to a weather delay, two-balls have been cancelled and replaced by three-balls. Two-ball selections, published early this morning, are further down the page. Most bookmakers will stand those selections; Sky Bet, however, make them void per their golf rules. As we recommended bets with bet365 and generally, our record will settle them, win or lose.
Scroll beyond three-balls for general overview and thoughts on outright market, plus two-ball selections.
Golf betting tips: PGA Championship three-balls
1pt double Conners and Cauley to win their three-balls at 9/2 (Paddy Power)
More rain forced the PGA to move from two-balls to three-balls for the third round of this so far underwhelming major championship, and things appear to have fallen quite nicely.
I mentioned this morning that I'd want to be against Luke Donald with almost anyone except Beau Hossler, and now we can have the ultra-reliable COREY CONNERS to beat them both.
Conners has been his typically excellent self from tee-to-green and his long-game numbers at Quail Hollow down the years are impressive even by his standards. It's a course he loves and he can be expected to perform well.
Donald did a little better than I expected yesterday but still lost his three-ball and this additional rain that's fallen will not help one of the statistically weakest drivers in the field so far. He ranked 153rd of 155 over the first two rounds.
As for Hossler, he's ragged and ranks 128th in strokes-gained ball-striking, plus 152nd in driving accuracy. Conners is third for the former and second for the latter and if either Hossler or Donald is to beat the Canadian, they'll need him to play badly, or to make almost every putt they look at.
Harris English and Denny McCarthy were two-ball picks but the former now has the strong-hitting Stephan Jaeger in his group while McCarthy has the impressive Ryan Gerard, backed by plenty of local , so I'm happy swerving them now.
By contrast, part of the case for BUD CAULEY was that David Puig, whose approach play has been poor, has a nagging injury.
Well so does Michael Kim, so with the latter thrown into Cauley's group and now forced to go through his warm-up routine for a second time, this is a really appealing draw for another rock-solid tee-to-green player in Cauley, who has been back to his best this spring.
It does mean we've plenty of eggs in his basket with two-ball bets standing with most firms, and I'm slightly less keen to oppose Kim than I am Puig, but Cauley at 2/1 has to be the call.
Scottie Scheffler was my fourth two-ball pick and he'll probably win his three-ball, but I do respect Si Woo Kim, who has impressed in two Presidents Cup appearances including at this course. He won a match against Scheffler in Canada last year, too, and I don't really want to be against him.
Besides which, bet365 have Scheffler the same price to beat two excellent players as he was to beat just one in places this morning. No deal.
Posted at 1500 BST on 17/05/25
Golf betting tips: PGA Championship round three
2pts Cauley and English to win their two-balls at 3/1 (bet365)
2pts McCarthy and Scheffler to win their two-balls at 7/4 (General)
1pt Cauley, English, McCarthy and Scheffler at 10/1 (bet365)
- Two-ball bets may be void following weather delay; players will now tee-off in three-balls - check individual operator rules. Sky Bet will void bets, but they stand with bet365, Paddy Power, and Coral. Above bets will be settled as runners in our record.
It's been a strange, somewhat underwhelming PGA Championship so far and another curious detail has emerged heading into the weekend: neither of the top two players in the betting is currently in the top four on the leaderboard.
Scottie Scheffler looks every inch the man to beat having moved into a share of fifth, three behind Jhonattan Vegas, and many will agree with the market and believe that his biggest threat lies behind, rather than in front. Bryson DeChambeau is two back of Scheffler, in 17th place, but is a single-figure price.
From Monday through to Saturday, at every point along the way, I've felt DeChambeau has been shockingly short. That feeling remains and of the two, Scheffler would by some margin be my choice. In fact he's one of just three I'd consider viable bets at the odds at this stage, the others being Matthew Fitzpatrick and Si Woo Kim.
Fitzpatrick is of course a major champion, one who beat Scheffler to win that US Open. Kim has always had the ability to become one and this fine ball-striker, who also has at least some experience of battling the best American players on this very golf course in the Presidents Cup, has a gutsy edge to him I've always liked.
Perhaps he can prove the biggest threat to the world number one.
But while my interest will switch to the outcome of the tournament itself if and when the PGA fully springs to life, which it does tend to do, for now it's eyes on Vegas. His double-bogey at the 18th hole yesterday didn't cost him the lead but after Kim's 64, it means Vegas is now just two ahead in the top rest of the world player market, where he was selected at 80/1 on Tuesday.
Now 2/1, I have to say I'm not hugely optimistic and have half an eye on the top four places and a 20/1 payout at least. Vegas struck his ball wonderfully in round two and could so easily have kicked into a wide-margin lead, but his short-game frailties cost him and now, unlike his competitors in this market, he has to tee off in a major championship with a target on his back.
Perhaps he'll surprise me but with 15 runners remaining in this field, I'm a little worried. Had he made par on 18 and Kim shot say 66, the lead could've been six. Instead it's two and, with so many candidates, we can't really fire cover shots yet either.
The hope is he plays well today and that becomes an option heading into the final round, and that he ultimately at least places and also wins top South American at 4/1.
Onto the two-balls and with big-hitting David Puig nursing an injury, BUD CAULEY is the first selection.
Cauley ranks 21st in strokes-gained tee-to-green versus Puig's 100th, so the numbers the idea that the American has been in greater control of his ball so far. He's enjoying a fabulous spring, contending for The PLAYERS and reminding us all of his long-held potential, and odds-against around a course he knows well looks good business.
Puig is a superb talent but as the course dries out, his power perhaps becomes less significant. Certainly he's not been hitting his approaches well and ranks dead last of those who've made the cut. If that continues he will struggle to score and Cauley is just the type of in-form ball-striker you want to be siding with in opposition, especially at odds against.
Chris Kirk against Michael Kim is a similar option given that the latter says his back still isn't 100%, but Kirk's putting woes and the fact he's no bigger than 5/4 are enough to look elsewhere, with HARRIS ENGLISH worth sticking with.
English is one of just three players inside the top 25 for both strokes-gained off-the-tee and approach and but for a quiet week so far with his usually excellent short-game, he could be right in there behind the leaders.
Comfortable at Quail Hollow and vastly experienced – this will be his 27th major weekend – he can for Nico Echavarria, whose long-game was more ragged yesterday as he shot 74, including two dropped shots in his final three holes.
Siding with these two southern boys gives us a double at or close to 3/1 and it looks rock-solid.
Later on, it's tempting to side with Taylor Pendrith to beat DeChambeau given that he's been put in at 9/4. DeChambeau's iron play has been the worst among the current top 40 and just as it caught up with him at Augusta, unless it improves it'll cost him a chance at this title, I think.
It's 15/2 if you double Pendrith with Xander Schauffele, who at 7/4 could prove a steal against Rory McIlroy. I wouldn't have expected to want to take on McIlroy around here but after it was revealed that he was forced into a late driver switch pre-tournament, maybe he'll again prove vulnerable.
Preference though is to double DENNY MCCARTHY and SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER at 7/4 generally.
McCarthy plays with the more powerful but less experienced Sam Stevens and what's significant is that, so far, both have relied heavily on their short-games. McCarthy though always does and is far more likely to maintain it through another round, whereas Stevens isn't hitting the ball as well as he typically needs to in order to score.
Scheffler meanwhile looks the banker on the coupon. Just about anyone but Beau Hossler and I'd be taking on Luke Donald, and there's a solid case for siding with Wyndham Clark over Rafael Campos, but Scheffler is more appealing despite being up against yesterday's star, Max Homa.
Of course, it's been great to see Homa step up his game over these last two majors and he loves it here, but Scheffler should have his number today. I felt he played poorly on Thursday and shot two-under; there were some mistakes on Friday and he shot three-under.
He may well go through the gears but rather than take little more than 2/1 that he wins, by adding McCarthy we might get paid out at similar odds a day early.
Posted at 0735 BST on 16/05/25; updated at 1500
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