They are down to the semi-final stage at the French Open. Andy Schooler’s previews Friday’s matches in the men’s singles.
Tennis betting tips: French Open matches
1pt Carlos Alcaraz to win and both players to win a set v Lorenzo Musetti at 13/8 (William Hill)
1pt Jannik Sinner to beat Novak Djokovic 3-0 at 6/4 (bet365, BetVictor)
1pt Jannik Sinner to serve the most double faults v Novak Djokovic at 11/4 (bet365)
Lorenzo Musetti v Carlos Alcaraz (1330 BST)
In many ways, Friday’s men’s semi-finals at the French Open look an intriguing pair.
We’ve got the all-time great v the current best in the second match (more on that later) and in this one we have the defending champion against a player who has made great strides this season, especially on the clay – Musetti must now be considered one of the best on this surface following a string of wins since the return to the red dirt.
Yet, look at things from a different angle and it’s really not that hard to see the two favourites dominating.
Take this contest. Alcaraz has won six of their seven previous meetings, including the last five. In those five, he’s lost just a single set.
Musetti’s one-handed backhand is a joy to watch but I’ve been impressed with the forehand, which generates plenty of power, while his drop shots are among the best around.
That said, when you look at Alcaraz, it’s not hard to argue he does everything just that little bit better – he’s a drop-shot demon too and his forehand has even more fizz. Looking at the stats, Alcaraz’s figure of 63% second-serve points won at Roland Garros is a standout (Musetti is at 56%) and could give him an important edge.
To be fair, Musetti’s improvement this season did help him test Alcaraz in two recent meetings – they met in the Monte Carlo final in April when the Italian won the first set but won only one more game as fatigue from a tough week kicked in.
The rematch in Rome was decided in straight sets but Musetti was a break up in the second set, which he eventually lost on a tie-break.
He should at least be competitive here and I will point out again that Alcaraz hasn’t been running through opponents in Paris – Fabian Marozsan, Damir Dzumhur and Ben Shelton have all taken sets off the Spaniard, albeit he did dismantle Tommy Paul in the last round when the American wasn’t 100% physically.
If those guys can win a set against Alcaraz, Musetti certainly can – as pointed out, he did so in Monte Carlo and went close in Rome.
Musetti to win a set is 3/4 with both players to do so can be backed at 10/11.
I’m also tempted to go over the total games line, which is set at 33.5 – that’s a 4/5 shot.
However, for a juicier price, let’s take the 13/8 about ALCARAZ WINNER AND BOTH PLAYERS CLAIMING A SET.
It’s hard to see Musetti winning in straights so this would appear to give us bigger value about him claiming a set.
Even if he does spring the upset, I can handle that – followers of our outright preview will have him each-way at 25/1.
Another potential bet comes in the double-fault markets.
Alcaraz has served the most in six of their seven matches, yet bet365 have this as 6/5 each of two with the tie at 9/2.
Alcaraz is also ahead on DFs per game at this tournament (0.15 to 0.11).
Jannik Sinner v Novak Djokovic (1800 BST)
Djokovic has once again delivered at a Grand Slam but there are still two matches to go.
Potentially, he now needs to beat Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz back-to-back, on clay, at the age of 38.
I think that would rank right up there with some of his very best achievements.
Can he do it? Well, those who saw him take down Alex Zverev on Wednesday night might think so but Sinner is 1/4 for a reason.
I’ve been blown away by how well the Italian has played since his return from three months out due to a drugs ban. He’s yet to lose a set at this tournament and I’m really not sure Djokovic is ready for that.
I being teased by the Serb’s run through the Wimbledon field last year but when he then had to face Alcaraz in the final, he was torn apart. I reckon there’s a decent chance that happens here.
The pair are level at 4-4 on the head-to-head and Djokovic is even 1-0 up on clay.
However, that was back in 2021 when Sinner was along way from being world number one.
Look at the match list and you find that Sinner has won four of the last five, while dig deeper and you see that Djokovic hasn’t even fashioned a break point in their last two meetings. That’s pretty remarkable for one of the best returners of all time.
He should have a better chance of making an impact on the clay but Sinner’s serving dominance in those recent matches has to be a concern. He’s also lost his serve only twice in five matches so far in Paris.
Djokovic used the drop shot an awful lot against Zverev the other night but Sinner is a better mover for me, while the element of surprise in the persistent use of that tactic is now gone.
The Serb’s pace of shot was mentioned against Zverev – he was striking harder than the German for most of the match – but Sinner generates even greater speed and has maintains his accuracy when switching the direction of the ball. Expect Djokovic to be dragged into some uncomfortable, wide positions.
Some of Djokovic’s defensive work was excellent against Zverev – the break point in the fourth set springs to mind.
However, given I’m mentioning that point, I’ll also say now that Zverev should have smashed away a winner there and that could have got him right back in the match.
Djokovic was blowing at times between points and I stick by my suggestion that he could be vulnerable physically if dragged really deep.
Not that I think that will happen here. I reckon Sinner could really signal the changing of the guard here and will back him for a STRAIGHT SETS WIN at 6/4.
In the sub-markets, Sinner to serve the MOST DOUBLE FAULTS appeals at 11/4.
That’s occurred in six of the eight previous meetings and I think that goes to show the pressure Djokovic’s excellent returning can put on his second serve.
The reason for the price seems to be the fact that Sinner has served only one double fault at the tournament so far, although Djokovic’s total of six is hardly shabby either.
There probably won’t be too many in this match but I would expect Sinner’s to deliver some and his price just looks worth a dabble.
Posted at 2045 BST on 05/06/25
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