Golf expert Ben Coley previews the PGA Championship, where two Scandinavians can continue a fine run for Europe's Ryder Cup side.
Golf betting tips: PGA Championship
3pts e.w. Ludvig Aberg at 25/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2pts e.w. Viktor Hovland at 45/1 (bet365, Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Brooks Koepka at 50/1 (bet365, Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Harris English at 175/1 (bet365, Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Cameron Young at 175/1 (Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1pt e.w. Gary Woodland at 250/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Kurt Kitayama at 300/1 (bet365, Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Major championships are rare and to be celebrated for all their wonder, but I won't be alone in wishing none of them went to golf courses we see every year on the PGA Tour.
Maybe Pebble Beach and the occasional US Open, I suppose, and the DP World Tour does visit St Andrews for the Dunhill Links, but surely we have enough places to explore without Quail Hollow being necessary, so necessary that we're back for the second time in less than a decade. There's been a Presidents Cup here, too.
In other ways it makes sense. To me, the PGA Championship sits at the intersection of a Venn diagram where A is the PGA Tour and B is the US Open, so borrowing from both is understandable. Here, we get a PGA Tour course given the old-fashioned US Open treatment, which essentially means allowing the rough to grow longer and the greens to run faster, and we're in a major city which knows how to run these things.
It's just a pity that a tournament which has lost part of its identity in the move from August to May, Glory's Last Shot turned into the one between the Masters and the US Open, sacrifices more of it with its location. Essentially, this looks like a PGA Tour event with LIV Golf players invited, otherwise known as golf before the divide, and it may not be until one of the major storylines begins to unfold that this feeling gives way.
Thankfully, there are plenty of those. Whatever this major championship may lack in uniqueness, it makes up for through the happy chance of timing. It seems unlikely that had this particular edition taken place in August instead, we'd have had such a kaleidoscope of intrigue.
There's Rory McIlroy, unshackled, chasing his second major of the year at a course made for him. Scottie Scheffler, who won his last start by eight shots. Jordan Spieth chasing his own career grand slam at a course where he starred in the Presidents Cup. Xander Schauffele defending his title, Ludvig Aberg and Viktor Hovland going for their respective firsts, Jon Rahm's quest for relevance. Bryson DeChambeau, also a winner last time, and Justin Thomas, winner the time before that.
Most of these players are or ought to be suited to Quail Hollow and the one who perhaps may not be, Spieth, was the top scorer at the aforementioned Presidents Cup. The trouble for Spieth is that his generally flatter, shorter driving means being under a lot of pressure off the tee. Quail Hollow is a 'big boy's course', as Collin Morikawa put it last year, and players like Morikawa and to a lesser extent Spieth have to do a heck of a lot right in order to compete, particularly with all the rain that's fallen.
That isn't to say they can't. Joel Dahmen was runner-up in the Wells Fargo in 2019, Abraham Ancer once chased home McIlroy and two of the more curious PGA Tour events of the last dozen years came here, first when Derek Ernst beat David Lynn and then when short-hitters James Hahn and Roberto Castro finished first and second. Both, though, come with major caveats and overwhelmingly, powerful drivers have won the argument.
Edoardo Molinari, the DP World Tour player whose statistical insights helped Matt Fitzpatrick become a major champion, says Quail Hollow is the number one course on the PGA Tour for long drivers. The PGA Championship is usually won by one of them – Schauffele vs DeChambeau last year, Brooks Koepka in 2023 – and this year's renewal is even more likely to go the same way, unless someone else putts as well as Morikawa did at Harding Park.
Swede success for Aberg
I suspect then that most will fall down on the side of McIlroy or DeChambeau, who were of course the final two-ball at Augusta a month ago. McIlroy's position at the top of this market was cemented that day, his four Quail Hollow wins making him a worthy rival to Scheffler in the battle for favouritism, while DeChambeau's subsequent LIV Korea victory has seen his price almost halved since the Monday after the Masters.
The latter surely represents little value now and I'd give the vote to McIlroy, but betting each-way against the big three is how I and I suspect most readers would prefer to go. Golf is rarely anything like as simple as this market suddenly makes it seem and the PGA might be the single most competitive tournament played all year. Five times your money for finding the winner doesn't feel like a gift.
Schauffele has a good record when defending and his driver finally clicked last week, as did the putter, but he hasn't contended for anything since last summer so my preference is to take on a few more question marks with LUDVIG ABERG.
The Swede does arrive here after two substandard performances but Harbour Town is never going to truly play to the strengths of such a powerful driver, that club so often forcibly kept in the bag, and given the nature of the two standout players in Philadelphia last week, that course probably wasn't for him, either.
Prior to it, Aberg had made it back-to-back Masters top-10s and so often, the best place to go searching for the winner of the PGA Championship is the leaderboard from the year's first major. Aberg was 10-under with two holes to go and with McIlroy and Justin Rose having been in a play-off at 11-under, he was right in the thick of it once more.
Having contended behind Scheffler last year and behind DeChambeau at Pinehurst for a long time, Aberg looks an obvious candidate to be the next breakthrough major champion, perhaps more so now that he's won the biggest title of his career so far. That came back in February at the Genesis Invitational, rerouted to Torrey Pines, a long, tough course where many Quail Hollow winners have thrived in the past.
It's that plus his prodigious driving which make me firmly believe that Aberg will take to Quail Hollow and while it is his debut, if you can learn Augusta in a day or two then this point-and-shoot golf course will feel comparatively simple. For all its pristine presentation, there isn't much nuance here. The task is spelled out from every tee box and it's one Aberg is equipped for.
His recent downturn with his irons is probably the number one area for concern but it's significant that at Torrey Pines, where there are a similar number of long approach shots versus the wedges we're used to, his irons did the damage. They'd done so a year earlier, too, and Aberg's proficiency from longer distances makes this the right kind of place to turn those numbers around.
Off the tee he's hardly missed a beat all year, ranking fourth last week and eighth at the Masters, and I'm happy playing at 20/1 and upwards.
Hovland preferred to promising Pat
Regular readers will know how hard it's been for me to leave out Patrick Cantlay after another encouraging display last week. He's placed for us twice this season, including at Torrey Pines, and the warming of his putter throughout the Truist was almost enough to go in again. His price seems fair, too, and I'd be among the faithful when it comes to him going really close in one of these soon.
The trouble is not so much that he's gone a long time without winning (almost three years), but his mediocre Quail Hollow record. He played pretty well here in the Presidents Cup but that's under different conditions later in the year, and in the Wells Fargo Championship he's gone MC-21-29. Disastrous? No, but he's putted well on his last two visits yet simply has not struck the ball like someone who is totally comfortable.
By contrast, VIKTOR HOVLAND has plenty of positive experience of the course and declared 'I do really like it' when third on debut, going on to describe it as a 'driving range golf course' to emphasise that point about how clear the demands of Quail Hollow have been made.
Hovland's subsequent two visits have been less eye-catching but he was first in strokes-gained off-the-tee two years ago, then ranked among the best ball-strikers last May only to suffer on and around the greens at a time when he'd been struggling for form and fitness, his previous outing having been a Masters missed cut.
Twelve months on and while I don't think any of us could declare with any certainty that he's found all the answers to a year's worth of struggles, he did win the Valspar Championship impressively, then played well for 21st at the Masters and 13th at the Heritage, before a poor performance at the Truist Championship which has certainly juiced his odds for this.
But for that performance at a new and somewhat quirky course we could be taking half these odds and while he will need to drive the ball better, his approach play continued at the high level we've seen since February (nine starts), only for his newfound confidence with an old putter to come to a grinding halt on day one.
Thankfully, he was much better come Sunday, ranking 13th in the field, and he in fact improved throughout each day – enough to believe that the putter won't be the reason he doesn't contend for this, not if he's back in the kind of form we saw at the Valspar at least.
That event is a sneaky major trial, too, and there are definite Quail Hollow similarities. Perhaps that's why Wyndham Clark (2023 winner here), Thomas (2017 PGA champion here), Schauffele (runner-up last two visits) and Patrick Reed (runner-up to Thomas) have all played really well in both although given what Hovland has done here himself, whether that connection plays out or not doesn't really matter.
A past champion at Muirfield Village and Olympia Fields, second at Oak Hill and Bay Hill, Hovland is made for these long, classical, championship courses and if he tightens up off the tee then he could make odds approaching 50/1 look extremely generous.
As with Aberg, the fact he's a winner this year and wasn't far away at the Masters makes him look an ideal type on paper and, second and third across the last two renewals of the PGA, it might be his time.
Just how well LIV Golf's squad has been able to prepare is hard to say but it's enough of a doubt for me to overlook Joaquin Niemann. He's long, he has some solid enough Quail Hollow form and I've had him in mind for this and the US Open all season, but on balance it makes sense to wait and see with the latter in mind. Like so many major champions before him, Thomas being a prime example, maybe he needs to contend for one first.
BROOKS KOEPKA's major exploits still demand that we give him the benefit of the doubt when it comes to preparation as he's won five of them from all kinds of run-ins.
Having sided with him at 28/1 for the Masters, significantly bigger odds here are hard to turn down as he actually hit the ball really well at Augusta. Unfortunately his short-game was awful and that continued into LIV Mexico, but the putter warmed up in Korea and, back on the east coast, the Floridian is worth the benefit of the doubt.
This course is certainly suitable. For whatever reason, he tended to keep it off his schedule in the past but rocked up for his debut in the 2017 PGA and led the field in strokes-gained tee-to-green, another small indicator that Aberg and others who don't know it well may not be at much of a disadvantage, if any at all.
Koepka's putter kept him from contending that week and he's only been back once, the following spring, for what was just his second solo start of the year following injury. Given that the first had been in January, he did really well to make the weekend thanks to four rounds of par or better, and I don't think Quail Hollow will be an excuse.
Having gained strokes both off the tee and with his approaches in each of his last five starts, Koepka is hinting at playing some very good golf and I just wonder whether the Masters might act as a catalyst for two reasons: his performance, and that of McIlroy.
Until then, Koepka could legitimately claim to be the best player of his generation purely on number of majors won, but that conversation is over now. And as for missing the cut, on one of two previous occasions he did that in the Masters, his subsequent results in majors that year read second, fourth, sixth.
I'm very happy doubling down at almost twice the price he was just a few weeks ago, for a major he's won three times before.
Four outsiders worth following
To my eye, the middle of the market didn't make a great deal of appeal. Justin Rose's withdrawal last week is a big negative, as is Jason Day's, and while the latter is a course winner, his odds reflect that fact. Maverick McNealy has the game but has to show it at this level, something he hinted at when runner-up to Aberg, while the powerful Min Woo Lee may find too many trouble spots.
But that emphasis on power, touched upon at the start and further ed by the rain which fell throughout Monday morning in Charlotte, leads to some fun options at massive prices. Getting one over the line won't be easy – majors tend to be won by the very best – but this one has seen Phil Mickelson win at 125/1, Mito Pereira blow it at a similar price, Cam Davis place for us at 275/1 two years ago, and Thomas Detry hit the frame last year.
I expect we'll see at least a couple of outsiders land the place money and the best way to wade through them probably is by driving distance, but I'll make one exception for the mid-ranking HARRIS ENGLISH.
Winner of the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines, which has hosted two tournaments this year, English also has a good record at Bay Hill and three US Open top-10s, one of them at Torrey. In other words, tough conditions on long golf courses often bring out his best.
He was a good 12th in the Masters last month, that his best result in six tries, and having made 26 cuts in 32 major appearances his record in them is exceptional for a player of his standing in the game. English has always said he prefers grinding and he's backed it up on the golf course.
Winning on Saturdays 🏆 pic.twitter.com/EoQNAEwD6t
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 26, 2025
The former Ryder Cup player has done it at this one, too. In fact he's made six cuts from six starts at Quail Hollow, where he almost always putts well, and two years ago finished third behind Clark and Schauffele. Significantly, his three top-10 finishes that season came here, at Bay Hill, at the US Open and at Olympia Fields, where Quail Hollow specialists packed out the leaderboard.
English now returns with his game in good shape, having been 30th in The PLAYERS, 18th in Houston, 12th in the Masters and 11th in the Truist last week – that's four of his five appearances over the last two months. That he drove it as well as he has for a good while last week is encouraging as it's the one area of concern, and at three-figure prices he looks a live runner.
Again, first-time major winners have often won that year and contended for one before. English qualifies and is a plausible contender in my eyes.
Next it's CAMERON YOUNG and I'll it to some trepidation here, as he'd been badly out of sorts until finishing seventh last week, a performance which owed plenty to the putter.
In fact three really good putting performances this year have been required for his only three performances of note so there's some improvement needed from his long-game, although he did produce his best approach play figures of the season by quite some margin in Philadelphia.
The only thing missing there was his driver, which is his main strength when firing, and he's yet to hit the heights of previous campaigns. However, it is possible to find caveats, in particular the nature of the last two courses played, and before them he was towards the top of the field in both the Texas Open and the Masters.
Young could definitely slip back into gear now presented with a course which so heavily favours players with his skills and having played Quail Hollow twice in the Wells Fargo and once in the Presidents Cup, striking the ball well last year in particular, he's shown just enough promise to be worth risking.
This is a player with five top-10s from 15 major starts, one of them in this at Southern Hills, and having gone to college in North Carolina he has enough in his favour.
David Puig is one LIV option – his form on that circuit stacks up and DataGolf rate him about the equal of Min Woo Lee, who is less than half the odds – and there are plenty of other powerful players quoted at three-figure prices despite having the right sort of conditions under which to excel.
My remaining picks among them though are GARY WOODLAND and KURT KITAYAMA.
Woodland has a brace of top-five finishes here and led the field in strokes-gained tee-to-green when 14th a couple of years ago. That was one of his top-three performances of a poor year while fifth place in 2021 was his very best. Even in 2024, when mid-pack, it ranked among his standout efforts as he continued his rehabilitation.
Undoubtedly then Quail Hollow is a great fit for a player who has had to fight his way back from brain surgery and with both his top-10 finishes in this tournament having come on long, soft courses, as did his win in the US Open at Pebble Beach, he certainly has conditions in his favour.
It was only at the end of March that Woodland's comeback was properly cemented by second place in Houston, where he made a stunning birdie on the final hole, and that was one of the two most big-hitter-friendly tournaments held on the PGA Tour so far this season.
A round nearly six years in the making.
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) April 2, 2025
On Sunday, @GaryWoodland tied the course record @TCHouOpen and finished T2 for his best finish since his victory at the 2019 U.S. Open. pic.twitter.com/2OUkbZCwNi
Yes, he putted the lights out but his long-game was also good and on his next start, he was the best driver in the field in Texas. Since then he's only played a pair of courses which are far less suitable, but last week's share of 34th still threw up another big positive as he ranked eighth in strokes-gained approach, his best return of the year.
That means he's done everything to a very high standard over his last four starts, bar his work around the greens, and the 40-year-old might have another flourish in him. That he's big pals with Rose, Masters runner-up at 44, should encourage Woodland that his days competing with the likes of McIlroy, Scheffler and DeChambeau are not yet over.
Finally, Kitayama was placed at huge odds at Oak Hill two years ago and could repeat that.
Alongside Houston, the next most big-hitter-friendly tournament so far this year was the Byron Nelson, won by Scheffler last time out. Six of the top 12 were bona fide bombers and the likes of Jhonattan Vegas, Cameron Champ, Chris Gotterup and Pierceson Coody weren't far behind, with Trey Mullinax another who popped up in contention.
Kitayama is one of the bombers who placed, finishing fifth thanks to an excellent tee-to-green display combined with welcome putting improvement, and this ties in with his wider record. He remains the most surprising winner of a Signature Event and he achieved that at the expense of Scheffler and McIlroy at Bay Hill, which has been turned into a long, brutal, major-like test.
His record at Quail Hollow reads MC-34 but the latter came last year when he was ninth in strokes-gained approach before producing another good PGA performance (26th) on another long, soft course, so following a timely return to form I could see him hitting the frame again.
80/1 Sky Bet special: All four outsiders to finish T40 or better
Posted at 2000 BST on 12/05/25
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