Our timefigure expert Graeme North analyses the key action from the Betfred Derby Festival including Lambourn's win in the feature.
“Epsom, in fact, is a law unto itself. Just as those who run Epsom races have their special problems (there are seven roads crossing the racecourse, and as a result a vast amount of clinker, coke, breeze, tan, and cut grass has to be put down to make the roads safe to race over. It is probably an understatement to say that nine out of the ten people who come to The Hill on Derby Day have to cross the course to do so – and they number between a quarter and half a million) so the horses who win the Derby have to show themselves suited to a course unlike any other in the country. The Derby is not won by duds – in fact more often than not it is won by the best three-year-old of the year.”
Plenty has changed since those words were written around 80 years ago in ‘British Racecourses’, of course, not least the Derby Day attendance which has fallen off nearby Box Hill and barely reached the low tens of thousands this year, and whether Lambourn will show himself the best three-year-old of the year is something only time will tell but I’ve little doubt for now that he is a legitimate winner of the race and certainly not a dud as Serpentine, to whom he was compared quite widely afterwards, turned out to be.
That said, there are undoubtedly similarities between the two winners and two races; Serpentine, whose 2020 victory came in a Covid-hit season so was run behind closed doors, also won the Derby from the front after being ‘left alone’ and so able to build up a sizeable advantage, one far bigger than Lambourn enjoyed for sure; and like Lambourn scored in a 114 timefigure chased home by two big-priced horses as well as others who ran the distance from the path at the top of the straight to the winning line much faster than he did, one of them (English King) in Serpentine’s year by as much as 2.54 seconds (getting on for 14 lengths) according to Timeform.
In my Watch And Learn analysis from Chester’s May meeting I wrote “Lambourn is a horse I suspect remains underrated and possibly by some margin too. Traditional handicapping orthodoxy says that the bare form of his Chester Vase win can’t be rated highly …but close inspection of his finishing sectionals, and particularly his final one, suggests that the longer the race went on increasingly more dominant he became, and quickly too, with his last furlong of all arguably entitling him to a 6lb higher upgrade than runner-up Lazy Griff.
"Twice a winner at two when overcoming wide trips at the tightly-turning tracks of Killarney and Craon, the latter after missing the break by four lengths under Christophe Soumillon, he strikes me as a horse whose form might take a substantial step forward when getting a properly-run mile and a half and a ground-saving ride”.
None of that is to say, of course, that Lambourn will get the better again of Delacroix, who suffered some early interference from an unhelpful draw and never figured, not least given they seem unlikely to lock horns again anyway, or indeed any of the others who finished behind him, but it seemed to me he had the best credentials going into the race and can, for now, boast the best coming out of it as well.
Where now for those beaten in the Derby?
So, what about the prospects of those behind? Lazy Griff was no doubt a welcome boost for Charlie Johnston, whose Kingsley Park stables need an injection of quality these days. Looking back at his Prix de Conde win last year, I’d forgotten what a sizeable, powerful individual he was, the sort that will surely be better still at four and might end up as the stable’s next Subjectivist, though he’ll surely have the Gordon Stakes and the St Leger on his agenda before then.
New Ground whose form lines tie in closely with French Derby runner-up Cualificar and unlucky fifth Azimpour, and who probably ran the most eye-catching race of all considering he was in a muck sweat beforehand, failed to settle, had to race wide and then finished strongly.
Nightime Dancer was another who ran on well from well back at the same time all those representing the Dante form were retreating to the rear.
Unfortunately, when attempting to unpick the detail and determine exactly what upgrade if any Lambourn, and more particularly Tennessee Stud and New Ground, might merit from a sectional timing perspective, I was confronted with a tangled web of opposing information as the data for the race as presented by RaceIQ differs markedly in some cases from that available via At The Races.
For example, Lambourn’s winning time is displayed on At The Races as 2m 39.32, a long way off the correct official time of 2m 38.50, while the last two furlongs data appear for Tennessee Stud to be the subject of a transmission error with his final furlong in particular unfeasibly fast.
RaceIQ data at least displays the same individual finishing times as the BHA, but the individual furlong data doesn’t then match up with what I collated manually with Lazy Griff, for example, appearing to run the last three furlongs marginally slower than Lambourn - and not faster - and Tennessee Stud not running the last three furlongs as fast as made out.
If I were asked to re-order the first four on sectionals I’d put New Ground second, Tennessee Stud third and Lazy Griff fourth; Lambourn would still emerge clear best on the day.
Did Jan Brueghel outbattle Calandagan?
The Betfred Coronation Cup and Betfred Oaks, the two Group One races over the mile-and-a-half on the previous day (though they both had added yardage of 14 yards so some fresh ground could be saved for the Derby), were each run at a strong gallop. A winning time in the Coronation Cup of 2m 36.13 for Jan Brueghel is only middling so far as the race is concerned this century, but the time a horse records is by itself not meaningful without taking into its context.
After comparing to the time Jan Brueghel might have been expected to run under the conditions on the day (good to soft) under the weight he carried among other things, such as wind strength and direction and the times recorded by other winners on the card, he comes out with a 126 timefigure which is the highest in the race this century by 3lb.
If the corrected RaceIQ data is indeed correct, the first two are worthy of another 4lb over the result given their finishing speeds compared to Timeform’s new pars, which was pretty much the status Calandagan enjoyed before the race but less so St Leger winner Jan Brueghel who might have been considered more a stayer beforehand, at least outside his own stable.
There were accusations thrown at odds-on favourite Calandagan afterwards that he wouldn’t go past Jan Brueghel which served to explain why he’s finished second in all his last four Group One contests but, given he gave the winner two lengths head start turning for home and pulled much further clear of Giavellotto than he had in the Sheema Classic, I doubt there’s a horse in Europe who could do to him what Jan Brueghel did. Also, he hasn’t encountered fast ground since last year’s Juddmonte International
Oaks principals genuine top-flight performers
The Oaks wasn’t quite as strongly run as the Coronation Cup with the pace-setting Whirl going through the first half mile half a second slower than Continuous had managed and the first mile a just over a second slower. But it looked to me as if the better filly won and only inexperience on her part stopped her winning more easily after she’d moved alongside Whirl three furlongs out with menacing ease at the same point 1000 Guineas winner Desert Flower was already being ridden along.
Whirl’s 109 timefigure was just 3lb below the smart level she recorded in the Musidora, leaving Minnie Hauk to run a 110, and it’s not difficult to imagine them clean sweeping the remaining Group One middle-distance contests open to the female sex this season, and perhaps even winning a contest open to both sexes too.
Unfortunately, space prevents me from covering the two-year-old scene I wrote two weeks ago that I would, but those observations will be available as part of my timefigure previews for Royal Ascot next week.
Entries for the two-year-old contests are not out yet, of course, but if I had to select one horse above all other right now to pin my flag to it would be Brussels.
He won what looked the hottest maiden of the year at the Curragh in May in a time that was worth the same as that achieved by Group Two Greenlands Stakes winner James’s Delight, but he earned an upgrade using the new sectional upgrade formula undergoing trialling at Timeform that puts him up around 112. He looked a big powerful individual and can only improve on that.
More from Sporting Life
- Racecards
- Fast results
- Free bets
- Full results and free video replays
- Horse racing news
- Horse racing tips
- Horse racing features
- our free iOS and Android app
- Football and other sports tips
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
