Andy Schooler previews Saturday’s French Open women’s singles final in which his outright pick, Coco Gauff, faces Aryna Sabalenka for the title.
Tennis betting tips: French Open women's final
1pt Aryna Sabalenka to beat Coco Gauff 2-0 at 11/8 (bet365, William Hill, 888sport)
Aryna Sabalenka v Coco Gauff (1400 BST)
For the first time since 2021, someone other than Iga Swiatek will be lifting the famous Coupe Suzanne Lenglen as French Open champion.
As she has been since the first ball, Aryna Sabalenka is the favourite to be that person.
She was the one to dethrone Swiatek, ending the Pole’s 26th match winning streak at Roland Garros when they met in the semi-finals on Thursday.
The Belarusian was super aggressive on return, using her power to immediately put Swiatek on the back foot. She was particularly brutal on the second serve – Swiatek won only 35% of points behind her second delivery.
I have little doubt she will adopt a similar approach here, especially given the struggles Gauff has at times had with her serve.
Again, the second serve will be attacked mercilessly and we’ve seen in the past how that can lead to double-fault problems for the American.
That was the case earlier this week against Madison Keys when she served 10 of them and it’s worth noting that Gauff has hit double figures in three of her 10 previous meetings with Sabalenka, including a frightening 21 in Wuhan last season.
The good news for Gauff is she’s had answers in this match-up before.
Their series stands level at 5-5, while’s it’s also all square on clay at 1-1.
Sabalenka has won three of the last four, however, including 6-3 7-6 in Madrid last month.
Gauff’s route to success surely has to be using her great defence to its fullest.
For me, she’s the more natural claycourter and can get around Court Philippe Chatrier better than anyone. If she is able to consistently get balls back – and deep – she can force Sabalenka into errors.
Anyone who hits the ball that hard will struggle to keep the errors out of their game and while she generally did a decent job of that against Swiatek, there were periods when the mistakes did come.
There weren’t enough of them for Swiatek to win though – Sabalenka hit 29 winners to 25 unforced errors in that match – and I do wonder whether Gauff will be good enough against the barrage which is coming her way.
Gauff has been excellent on return in this tournament. She’s won a remarkable 69% of return games but the problem here is that Sabalenka’s strong serve has held sway in 80% of games through the rounds so far.
That second serve of Gauff is also a real concern, while the forehand has long been vulnerable to breaking down.
The collapses have tended to come in big matches and there can be no doubt Gauff is going to come under attack here – she’s only won 46% of points behind her second serve at this tournament, a figure well down on Sabalenka’s 54%. I’d be surprised if it’s above 40% in this contest.
One potential advantage for Gauff is mentally.
She’s played in the Roland Garros final before; Sabalenka has not.
Speaking after her semi-final, a relaxed-looking Gauff said: “My first final here (in 2022 v Swiatek) I was super nervous, and I kind of wrote myself off before the match even happened. Obviously here, I have a lot more confidence just from playing a Grand Slam final before and doing well in one (she won the 2023 US Open).”
Sabalenka also has the issue of backing up a huge semi-final win.
She itted that Thursday’s match “felt like a final” and while she added that “the job is not done yet”, you do wonder if there’s a feeling that the hardest part has already been achieved.
Yet Sabalenka is much tougher in the mind these days than, say, three years ago. I’ve written before about how she’s able to deal with adversity better – the troughs don’t last so long now. An example was that after the errors crept in during set two (which she lost) on Thursday, Sabalenka did not produce a single unforced error in winning the decider 6-0.
As much as I’d love Gauff to win given my outright position – followers will have her on their coupon at 5/1 – I just see Sabalenka’s power being able to overwhelm her.
Swiatek couldn’t deal with it for long enough and Gauff can go the same way.
A 1/2 favourite, Sabalenka can be backed at 11/8 for a straight-sets win and that’s the approach I’ll take, albeit tentatively.
CLICK HERE to back Sabalenka to win 2-0 with Sky Bet
In the sub-markets, I want to mention a couple of potential bets, largely based on the stats.
First up, the head-to-head shows these two have often produced close-fought sets and six of the 10 meetings have seen a tie-break.
Sky Bet go 11/4 about another here.
And in the serve markets, Gauff is 6/4 to serve the most aces, something she’s managed in five of the last seven against Sabalenka.
Long-term readers will know I place plenty of weight on the H2H in the serve markets, although on this occasion I am a little put off by the fact that Gauff hasn’t been serving many aces at all this past fortnight – she’s averaged only 0.1 per game, well down on Sabalenka’s 0.49.
Posted at 0930 BST on 07/06/25
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