Andy Schooler previews Wednesday’s quarter-final action at the French Open in Paris.
Tennis betting tips: French Open matches
1pt over 39.5 games in Alex Zverev v Novak Djokovic at 4/5 (William Hill, BoyleSports, 888sport)
Madison Keys v Coco Gauff (1000 BST)
Followers of our outright preview will already have an interest in this match with title pick Gauff having progressed with ease so far (we’ll gloss over the fact she’s now a bigger price than she started).
She could be vulnerable here – I’ve written many times before about how Keys is capable of hitting anyone off court when her game is ‘on’. It certainly was at this year’s Australian Open and perhaps my recent struggles can be traced back to the fact I didn’t back her on these pages at 50/1 back in January. That one will linger for years, I expect.
Keys also leads the head-to-head 3-2. It’s 1-0 on clay, although that came up at altitude in Madrid. Conditions should be slower in Paris.
The more defensive Gauff has been playing well though. She came into this event in good form and her displays at Roland Garros, where she is yet to lose a set, give no real reason for a re-evaluation of her title chances.
If pushed, I’d stick with Gauff to win this but is there any value in her at around 4/9? Not for me. Next…
Mirra Andreeva v Lois Boisson (after match 1)
I’ve seen barely anything of Boisson and I suspect I’m not alone in that boat.
That obviously makes this one hard to analyse.
The world number 361 stunned third seed Jessia Pegula in the last round and a lot of her success came from getting her forehand into play – the serve out wide on the ad side was delivered time and again.
If she is able to execute in the same way, you couldn’t write off the 13/2 chance, but Andreeva has more variety in her game and, having seen what Boisson is all about, you’d imagine she’ll be able to come up with a better counter plan.
As I wrote in the outright preview, I’ve not really been on the Andreeva bandwagon but she’s again delivering results when it matters. She’s yet to lose a set and my assessment of the 18-year-old probably needs to change. There’s clearly more to come.
Given what I do know, it’s hard to go against Andreeva here but, as a red-hot favourite, ways of siding with her look thin on the ground.
She’s only 2/5 to win in straight sets, while I’m not prepared to go under the 18.5 total games line, even though that may be the best way of backing her.
Jannik Sinner v Alexander Bublik (after match 2)
“It’s the best moment of my life.”
So said Bublik after his victory over Jack Draper in the last round, a match which saw him deliver a majestic performance.
Long-term followers of tennis will know Bublik is capable of that but, like many other mercurial talents, he’s much more likely to throw in something from the other end of the quality spectrum.
We’ve seen time and again over the years that Bublik’s game – a mixture of power-hitting and audacious shots – can quickly go badly wrong and, to me, it would be no surprise to see it disintegrate against the world number one in this contest.
The bookies clearly don’t expect another virtuoso display – or even if they do, they think Sinner will have all the answers.
Sinner is a best price of 1/33 with Bublik 25/1 to land another upset.
Anyone who has seen the Italian play since his return to the tour following his drugs ban would surely struggle to bet against him. He was on fire against Andrey Rublev the other night.
Maybe, just maybe, Bublik’s sometimes unorthodox play could cause problems but Sinner is really several levels above and I just don’t see that happening.
I think it’s much more likely that two days after his “best moment” we see Bublik reduced to one of his meltdowns – look out for him hitting the ball with his racquet handle with frustration having got the better of him and the mind telling him he really has no chance. Sadly there’s no market for this – maybe one for RequestABet!
Sinner is very short in nearly every market. The total-games line is set at just 28.5, while the main game-handicap line is 9.5. However, it’s not that difficult to envisage a Bublik hot streak which could scupper those.
If you are looking to get involved with Bublik, I think you could do worse than back him to win the first set but lose the match – Sky Bet go 13/2.
He surely has to come out firing and trying out his range of shots from the gun and maybe he could catch Sinner cold.
However, even if that happens, you’d expect Sinner to get on top in the end with Bublik needing to sustain an incredible level for more than two hours if he’s to land the upset of upsets here.
Alex Zverev v Novak Djokovic (not before 1915 BST)
This match gets the primetime slot – and with good reason. I think this could be a cracker.
Djokovic has once again managed to play himself into form at the right time and is yet to lose a set at the tournament.
As for Zverev, he only lost the one – to Jesper de Jong – and simply loves Roland Garros. Win this and he will be back in the semi-finals for the fifth year in a row.
A good mover for a man so tall, Zverev possesses a strong serve, a top backhand and a forehand which is also a weapon – you can see why he’s had plenty of success here.
It’s a game which can punch holes in Djokovic’s renowned defence and Zverev has proven he can challenge the all-time great.
He’s won five times against the Serb in 13 meetings but the recent trait of their matches is that they are nearly always tight.
Four of the last five completed matches have gone to a final set, while six of the last eight have featured a tie-break. Sadly another here is just 4/7.
The close nature of those contests should encourage Zverev.
Taking this long could be his route to success – he’s one of the fittest players on the tour, one who rarely looks fatigued.
Not that it’s easy to criticise Djokovic on that front but he is now 38 and isn’t taken deep into the trenches too often these days. In the past 18 months he’s played only two matches that have lasted more than three and a half hours, while January 2024 was the last time he played a four-hour match. He’s some fighter but you do wonder whether he’ll be physically there in a fifth set.
My gut feeling before I even looked at the markets for this one was that it would be close and long.
The bookies tend to agree – the match outcome market is virtually a pick’ em, while the total-games line is up at 39.5.
That’s about the top end of where I’d be happy to play but with that being what I expect to happen and with little else of appeal on Wednesday’s coupon, that’s the bet I’m going to place.
Posted at 1655 BST on 03/06/25
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